Mekanisme Transmisi Syariah pada Sistem Moneter Ganda di Indonesia

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy has been an area of abundant economic research in many countries. The financial system links monetary policy and the real economy. Thus, events or trends that affect the financial system can also change the monetary transmission mechanism. This study tries to analyze shariah transmission mechanism in Indonesian dual monetary system, using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods.

Results show that the relationship between SWBI (SBI Shariah) and shariah financing (LNFINCG) is negative. It means, when SWBI be higher, the quantity of shariah financing would be lower. And so do SBI and inflation (LNIHK). When the total of shariah financing be increase, it will gives positive contribution for reducing inflation rate in Indonesia, because with this system possibility to make equal growth among monetary and real sectors appears. Therefore, it will be strategic action for monetary authority to grow up shariah banking share in Indonesia, for minimizing ‘bad inflation’ in economy. Other recommendation, SWBI as shariah monetary instrument should be reconsidered to achieve positive impact for real sector.

JEL Classification: C32, E31, E42, E52

Keywords: Shariah Transmission Mechanism, Dual Monetary System, VAR/VECM

[Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Perbankan, BEMP BI Vol 11 No 4, 2009]

Determinan Inflasi Indonesia: Perbandingan Pendekatan Islam dan Konvensional

Abstract

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon which always be a problem for the economist in every country. The determinant factor of increasing price can be analyzed to get the best solution. Islamic and conventional economic have different paradigm about solution that should be done. This study try to analyze the determinant of Indonesian inflation with two approaches model using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods.

The results of variance decomposition, show that contribution of independent variable in Islamic model is greater than conventional one with 14.8 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively. Other findings show that interest rate gives positive influence and dominant contribution to IHK than other variables both, in Islamic model (13%) and mixed model (39%). Therefore, interest system in the Indonesian economy should be reconsidered to achieve monetary stability.

JEL Classification: C32, E31, E52

Keyword: Determinan Inflasi, Sistem Moneter, VAR/VECM

SCORE 2013

BUKU: The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications

This valuable text provides a comprehensive introduction to VAR modelling and how it can be applied. In particular, the author focuses on the properties of the cointegrated VAR model and its implications for macroeconomic inference when data are non-stationary. 

The text provides a number of insights into the links between statistical econometric modelling and economic theory and gives a thorough treatment of identification of the long-run and short-run structure as well as of the common stochastic trends and the impulse response functions.

SMART LIBRARY: Koleksi 50 + Buku Metodologi Penelitian

Aplikasi Teknik Pengambilan Keputusan dalam Manajemen Rantai Pasok; Teori dan Aplikasi Sistem Pakar dalam Teknologi Manajerial; SEM dengan Lisrel 8.8, Konsep & Tutorial; Riset Pemasaran; Metode Penelitian Kombinasi (Mixed Methods); Analisis Ekonometrika & Statistika dengan Eviews (Ed 2), Riset Bisnis dengan Analisis Jalur SPSS; Pemodelan Sumber Daya Perikanan dan Kelautan; Konsep Dasar Riset Pemasaran & Perilaku Konsumen;

Analisis Sistem Dinamis, Lingkungan Hidup, Sosial, Ekonomi, Manajemen; Konsep dan Aplikasi SEM berbasis Varian dalam Penelitian Bisnis; Metode Riset Kualitatif dalam PR & Marketing Communication; Analisis SWOT Teknik Membedah Kasus Bisnis; An Introduction to DEA, A Tool for Performance Measurement; Statistika untuk Penelitian; Riset Pemasaran dan Konsumen; Analisis Input Output; Marketing Research;

Penelitian Bisnis Paradigma Kuantitatif; Teknik dan Aplikasi Pengambilan Keputusan Kriteria Majemuk; SPSS Statistik Parametrik; Riset Eksperimen dengan Excel 2007 dan Minitab 15; Buku Pintar Minitab 15; Olah Data Skripsi dan Penelitian dengan SPSS 19; Metodologi Penelitian Ekonomi Islam; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Buku Saku SPSS, Analisis Statistik Data; Decision Making with The ANP, Economic, Political, Social & Technological Application with BOCR;

BUKU: Evaluating structural vector autoregression models in monetary economies

My dissertation uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate alternative identification strategies in VAR estimation of monetary models, and to assess the accuracy of measuring money instability as a cause of output fluctuations. I construct theoretical monetary economies using general equilibrium models with cash-in-advance constraints, which also include technology shocks, labor supply shocks, and monetary shocks. 

 Particularly, two economies are characterized: one is fully identified and satisfies the long-run restriction; another is not fully identified and the portion of temporary technology shocks is mixed with demand shocks when applying the long-run restriction. Based on each theoretical model, artificial economies are then generated through Monte Carlo simulations, which allow me to investigate the reliability of structural VAR estimation under various identifying restrictions. 

Applying short-run, medium-run, and long-run restrictions on the simulated data, I check for the bias between the average VAR estimates and the true theoretical claim. The findings show that short-run and medium-run restrictions tend to work better under model uncertainty, particularly because the bias for measuring the effects of monetary shocks using long-run restriction could increase substantially when the underlying economy includes unidentified temporary shocks. This experiment supports the claim that monetary shocks contribute no more than one third of the cyclical variance of post-war U.S. output, and suggests that their contribution could in fact be substantially less.

NEW BOOK: Aplikasi Metode VAR dalam Riset Ekonomi Keuangan Islam