SMART Consulting Research [SCORE] 2014

Hubungan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Perkembangan Industri Keuangan Syariah di Indonesia

ABSTRAKSI

Di dalam konteks ekonomi terbuka, perdagangan internasional dalam hal ini adalah ekspor dan impor, dan aliran dana antarnegara menjadi sesuatu yang tidak dapat dinafikan perannya dalam pemberian kontribusi bagi pertumbuhan. Sedangkan untuk hubungan keduanya terhadap perkembangan industri keuangan syariah di Indonesia nampaknya hingga saat ini belum ada yang mencoba menelisik lebih jauh. Studi ini mencoba menganalisis pola hubungan antara perdagangan internasional, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan perkembangan industri keuangan dan bisnis syariah di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode Vector Auto Regression (VAR) dan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).

Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pola hubungan antara ekspor dan growth adalah bi-directional causation yakni growth driven export dan export led growth. Begitu pula variabel impor. Temuan lain yang menarik adalah bahwa ternyata booming industri syariah belakangan ini tidak berkorelasi positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia secara makro. Begitu pula fakta bahwa semakin besar growth Indonesia tidak diiringi dengan semakin suburnya industri keuangan syariah. Oleh karena itu, syarat utama agar share industri syariah Indonesia dapat tumbuh dan berkembang signifikan adalah perlu political will dari pemerintah. 

Keywords: Perdagangan Internasional, Growth, Keuangan Syariah, VAR/VECM

Mekanisme Transmisi Syariah pada Sistem Moneter Ganda di Indonesia

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy has been an area of abundant economic research in many countries. The financial system links monetary policy and the real economy. Thus, events or trends that affect the financial system can also change the monetary transmission mechanism. This study tries to analyze shariah transmission mechanism in Indonesian dual monetary system, using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods.

Results show that the relationship between SWBI (SBI Shariah) and shariah financing (LNFINCG) is negative. It means, when SWBI be higher, the quantity of shariah financing would be lower. And so do SBI and inflation (LNIHK). When the total of shariah financing be increase, it will gives positive contribution for reducing inflation rate in Indonesia, because with this system possibility to make equal growth among monetary and real sectors appears. Therefore, it will be strategic action for monetary authority to grow up shariah banking share in Indonesia, for minimizing ‘bad inflation’ in economy. Other recommendation, SWBI as shariah monetary instrument should be reconsidered to achieve positive impact for real sector.

JEL Classification: C32, E31, E42, E52

Keywords: Shariah Transmission Mechanism, Dual Monetary System, VAR/VECM

[Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Perbankan, BEMP BI Vol 11 No 4, 2009]

Determinan Inflasi Indonesia: Perbandingan Pendekatan Islam dan Konvensional

Abstract

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon which always be a problem for the economist in every country. The determinant factor of increasing price can be analyzed to get the best solution. Islamic and conventional economic have different paradigm about solution that should be done. This study try to analyze the determinant of Indonesian inflation with two approaches model using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods.

The results of variance decomposition, show that contribution of independent variable in Islamic model is greater than conventional one with 14.8 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively. Other findings show that interest rate gives positive influence and dominant contribution to IHK than other variables both, in Islamic model (13%) and mixed model (39%). Therefore, interest system in the Indonesian economy should be reconsidered to achieve monetary stability.

JEL Classification: C32, E31, E52

Keyword: Determinan Inflasi, Sistem Moneter, VAR/VECM

SCORE 2013